The largest downward revisions are seen in Saudi Arabia, where development priorities have shifted from offshore capacity expansions to onshore infill drilling. The only country with any significant increase in 2024 is Argentina, with a gain of 4 billion bbl thanks to the derisking of shale projects in the Vaca Muerta formation.

This total recoverable oil resource of 1500 billion bbl gives an upper limit of how much oil can be produced over the next 100 years or more. Of course, this upper limit is only realistic and economical if oil demand is not impacted by the energy transition, meaning oil prices would rise far above US$100 per barrel. In this theoretical ‘high case,’ total oil production would peak around 2035 at 120 million bpd, then decline steeply to 85 million bpd in 2050.

Rystad Energy’s estimates of total recoverable oil resources have fallen by 700 billion bbl since 2019 due to reduced exploration activities. Exploration has fallen as investors fear new discoveries will remain stranded due to the ongoing electrification of vehicles and the expected slump in both oil demand and crude prices.

“The world’s remaining oil reserves are insufficient to support oil demand if there is no transition to electric vehicles. Attempts to limit the supply of oil will have hardly any effect on limiting global warming. Instead, the only feasible way of keeping global temperatures rising less than 2°C is to ensure fast electrification of road transportation,” says Per Magnus Nysveen, Head of Analysis at Rystad Energy.